Japanese Yen Forex Trading Forecast

March 8, 2010

Will the yen appreciate in March?

For some reason, many forex traders believe that March is, seasonally, a good month for the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The main reason is that March is at key point in the business year for Japan — in which repatriation takes place.

However, GFT’s Kathy Lien points out in FX360 that there is no evidence for a regular Japanese yen boost in March:

Contrary to popular belief, there is no seasonal trading pattern in USD/JPY during the month of March over the last 10 years. As indicated in the following chart, the Yen appreciated against the dollar only 5 out of the past 10 years, or 50 percent of the time.